Friday, February 1, 2008

Is Barack going to catch Hillary?

Is Obama really within 3 points of Clinton in California, as the Rasmussen Poll shows? If so, it would be stunning. Almost all the other public polls have shown her with double-digit leads, but he's obviously coming up fast with his endorsements. In general, a point-and-a-half a day is about all any candidate can gain over a sustained period of a week or more, but with the primary four days away that gives Barack a chance to take it.
I'd be a little cautions, though. The Rasmussen poll was the only one that had Romney beating McCain in South Carolina the week before the election, and then he lost a five-point lead in that poll in one night of polling. That really shouldn't happen and it doesn't inspire confidence in the poll methodology.

The stealth rally

Wow, since the Martin Luther King Day meltdown overseas that didn't quite happen here, we've had quite a rally. The S&P has regained more than half its loss and is now down only 4.06 percent on the year.
The Five for 2008 portfolio is now up 6.31 percent YTD, led by Capstead Mortgage, up 21 percent. With 125 basis points of rate cuts at its back, analysts are plugging numbers into their spreadsheets and coming up with estimaes of $2 in dividends for 2008. So it has some room to run to $20.
KSK is also recovering nicely, and only PEP is losing, apparently because of high commodities costs. PEP reports next week and we should find out how much of a dog it is.